BTC is up 245% and Ethereum is up 730% over a one-year period. Of course, both are now down a lot over the last month. But the price on its own tells us very little information.
The efficient market hypothesis would have us believe that information advantages, like knowing what a blockchain is, or thinking that a network with no transactions is worth less than a network with transactions, get absorbed into markets through arbitrage opportunities. If you have an information edge, no matter how fundamental or obvious or small, you act on that edge and get rewarded through profits over some time period. Therefore, incentives force rational actors to rationalize irrational markets.
But let’s not forget that social media and memetics exist, in part, to make machines out of our lizard brains and network them into the limbic system of the internet of attention.
The price, then, is not just a cold calculation of truth revealed. Rather, the price is a signal to be politicized, warred over and worshipped. If you can more easily move the sacred number with your heart than with your mind, which would you choose? No need to do math homework. Just join the bannered tribe of the Bitcoin maximalists, Link Marines, XRP Army, Doge army, or some other multi-agent Twitter centaur, and tear into anything and everything that stands counter to your narrative.
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